Global marine ingredient supply is heading into its worst year on record, and the culprit is a familiar one: El Niño has gutted Peru’s anchovy fishery, and the ripple effects are now showing up across the entire fishmeal and fish oil market.
How bad is it? According to IFFO (the International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organization), global fishmeal production is on track to fall 21% in 2026, to just under 4.5 million tonnes — the lowest since records began in the 1970s. Fish oil is down too, but less severely, off 15% to roughly 1.14 million tonnes, still the weakest supply in 16 years.
The damage is concentrated almost entirely in one place. Peru — the world’s dominant anchovy producer — accounts for 70% of the global fishmeal decline and 60% of the fish oil decline, after canceling its key north-central anchovy season in August. The Americas overall have seen fishmeal output collapse 41% year-on-year to 1.29 million tonnes, and fish oil down 27%. Chile has added to the pain, and even Europe (-22%, hit by North Atlantic pelagic quota cuts) and Africa (-14%) are dragging the global total lower.
What this means for the fish oil market
Fish oil is entering its tightest global supply window in over a decade, and the scarcity is concentrated in exactly the origin — Peru — that historically anchors both the aquafeed and human-nutraceutical omega-3 trade. With Peruvian and broader Americas output down sharply and no comparable offset outside Asia, buyers who depend on South American prime fish oil (salmon and shrimp feed producers, omega-3 supplement makers) are competing for a shrinking pool, which points toward firmer prices and tighter allocation through the rest of 2026.
What this means for the canned cod liver market
With demand surging for fish oil we will continue to have a strong demand for cod liver for oil production. Prices have already moved up considerably since the beginning of the year and they are likely to increase even further.
It is unlikely that the production of canned cod liver from farmed cod will be sufficient to compensate for this raw material shortage in this year.
Sources: IFFO market update (Sept. 14, 2026) and IFFO’s presentation at the GSA & Shrimp Summit 2026 (Sept. 21, 2026), via Undercurrent News.